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Prediction for CME (2024-07-23T14:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-23T14:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32145/-1
CME Note: Bright CME seen to the E in all coronagraphs. The source is an M2.4 flare from an unnumbered region on the SE limb around S10E77, which peaked at 2024-07-23T14:28Z, best seen in SDO AIA 131. Also observed starting around 2024-07-23T13:34Z as rapid field line opening with an EUV wave, followed by post-eruptive arcades, in SDO AIA 171/193/211 with surface brightening in SDO AIA 304. No CME or CME shock arrival signature in solar wind at L1.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-27T14:13Z (-12.4h, +13.88h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note: 
Time of Launch: 2024/07/23 14:30Z
Plane of Sky 1: 20:00Z; 31.5Rsun; E Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 03:50Z; 31.5Rsun; W Direction
POS Difference: 7:50
POS Midpoint: 23:55Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 9:25

Numeric View/Impact Type: 0
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~10.16
Travel Time: ~10.16 * 9:25 = 95:43

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-07-27T14:13Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh


Forecast Creation Time: 2025/07/24 23:01Z
Lead Time: 63.12 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-07-24T23:06Z
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